Lawler: New Census Long-Term Population Projections Are MASSIVELY Lower Than Previous Projections

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Last Friday Census released new long-term projections of the US resident population, this time going out to 2100.  The last time Census released long-term population projections was in 2017 (going out to 2060), and the 2023 projections for the “middle” scenario are massively lower than the 2017 projections.

Here is a chart showing the “middle-case” projections for the US resident population for the 2017 release compared to the 2023 release. (Note:  Census has not released updated population estimates for 2011 through 2019 that reflect Census 2020 results, but I have estimated what 2016 to 2019 would look like based on updated net international migration estimates for 2010 through 2019.)

And here is a table showing the different projections for selected years.

Needless to say, these differences are “massive.” 

The huge differences in the latest population projections from those in 2017 reflect (1) much lower projections for births; (2) higher projections for deaths; and (3) significantly lower projections for net international migration.  Here is a table showing projections for each of the components of population change for five-year periods.

I have been looking into these projections and have found some “issues” for the projections over the next few years, and I’ll be rewriting more about this topic soon.  However, for those analysts who have kept using the 2017 population projections for analysis purposes even though it was obvious they were woefully out of date, these latest population projections have surely left them “dazed and confused.”

CR Note: I’ll have more on the projected impact on housing from these new projections.