Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth
Demographics are key for housing!
From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show Massively Higher Population Growth
Last week Census released its “Vintage 2024” estimates of the US resident population, and the new estimates show substantially faster population growth over the past few years than those shown in the “Vintage 2023” estimates. The reason, not surprisingly, is that Census updated its methodology to include estimates of what it refers to as “humanitarian” migrants, including border patrol releases and paroles. As many probably remember, last year the CBO issued a report suggesting that border patrol/other data indicated that net international migration over the past few years had been massively higher than official Census estimates had suggested. For more details on Census’ updated NIM methodology, see Census Bureau Improves Methodology to Better Estimate Increase in Net International Migration
Below are some tables comparing the Vintage 2024 population estimates with the Vintage 2023 population estimates.
Note: Each population “Vintage” includes projections of the resident population for the subsequent year. Thus, for Vintage 2023 the 2024 numbers are projections, and for Vintage 2024 the 2025 numbers are projections.
As this table shows, estimated population growth from July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2024 from Vintage 2024 is an eye-popping 3,386,610 higher than the Vintage 2023 estimate. Virtually all of this difference reflects higher estimates of net international migration in the Vintage 2024 estimates.
On the next page are tables showing the estimates of the components of population change for Vintage 2023 and Vintage 2024. Note that Census does not release its assumptions for the components of change in its one year ahead projections.
For those who follow the household survey employment number along with the nonfarm payroll survey numbers, it is worth noting that the housing survey numbers are “controlled” to the latest Census population estimates and one-year ahead projections. As such, the 2024 household employment numbers are “controlled” to the Vintage 2023 employment projections for 2024. The Vintage 2023 projection for YOY resident population growth from December 2023 to December 2024 was 1,724,847, compared to the Vintage 2024 projection over this period of 2,745,741. As such, when the household survey employment estimates for the end of this year are revised in January to reflect population benchmark revisions, one should expect a sizable upward revision.
This was from housing economist Tom Lawler.