Lawler: Single Family Rent Trends at AMH and Invitation Homes

Update on Rent Trends

This article from housing economist Tom Lawler reviews some of the data included in my article last week Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year and adds some additional data from AMH and Invitation Homes.

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below is a table and a chart showing the YOY growth rates in various rent indexes:  the Apartment List Rent Index (ALRI: apartments, not smoothed); the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI: “all” rental properties, smoothed via a 3-month moving average), and the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (CLSFRI: SF attached and detached homes, smoothed via a 3-month moving average).

As the table and chart show, rent growth decelerated sharply starting in the second half of last year following a sharp acceleration in rent growth starting in the spring of 2021.

The table also suggests that the growth rate in apartment rents has weakened considerably more than the growth rate in SF rents.

On the next page is a table showing the monthly growth rates in these rent indexes.

All of these rent indexes display statistically significant seasonal swings, with rents hitting a seasonal peak in summer and a seasonal trough in winter.  Below is a table showing my estimate of the monthly % changes on a seasonally adjusted basis (the ZORI seasonally adjusted % changes are based on Zillow’s seasonally adjusted index).

Note that the CLSFRI actually accelerated slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis last quarter, in stark contrast to the other rent indexes, possibly reflecting the disparate supply/demand dynamics in the single-family vs. multifamily markets.

Single Family Rent Trends at AMH and Invitation Homes

Below is a table showing single-family rent trends at AMH (formerly American Homes 4 Rent) and Invitation Homes, two large institutional investors in SF rental homes.

Note that while rent growth has slowed at both companies over the last year, the slowdown in growth in actual rents paid is much less than that observed in most rent indexes.