Measures of Shelter in the CPI and PCE price indexes Still Increasing

While asking rents are falling, the measures of shelter in the CPI and PCE price indexes keep rising. This is because these measures include renewals, whereas the various private measures of monthly rents are for new leases.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report (both through January 2023):

Shelter was up 7.9% year-over-year in January, and housing (PCE) was up 8.0% YoY in January.

However, there is more impacting rents than the normal lag between new leases and renewals.