NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March

Median House Prices Increased 4.8% Year-over-Year

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Descended 4.3% in March

Existing-home sales slipped in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Midwest, South and West, but rose in the Northeast for the first time since November 2023. Year-over-year, sales decreased in all regions.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 4.3% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million in March. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.7% (down from 4.35 million in March 2023).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 1.11 million units, up 4.7% from February and 14.4% from one year ago (970,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.9 months in February and 2.7 months in March 2023.
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The sales rate was at the consensus forecast.

Sales in March (4.19 million SAAR) were down 4.3% from the previous month and were 3.7% below the March 2023 sales rate.

Housing Inventory Increased in March

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.11 million in March from 1.06 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 14.4% year-over-year (blue) in March compared to March 2023. Months of supply (red) increased to 3.2 months in March from 2.9 months the previous month.

In March 2019, months-of-supply was at 3.8 months, so there is less supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic. Even though sales have declined significantly compared to 2019, inventory has fallen even more - pushing down months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales declined 3.7% year-over-year compared to March 2023. This was the thirty-first consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.