From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 8.4% Decrease in January
Month-over-month
• 8.4% decrease in existing-home sales—seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million in January• 0.8% decrease in unsold inventory—1.22 million units equal to 3.7 months’ supply
Year-over-year
• 4.4% decrease in existing-home sales
• 0.9% increase in median existing-home sales price to $396,800
emphasis added
This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.
Sales in January (3.91 million SAAR) were down 8.4% from the previous month and were down 4.4% compared to the January 2025 sales rate. Sales have been very low for 3+ years.
Note that sales were well below the consensus forecast, but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate (even with less local data this year due to the earlier release dates).
Housing Inventory Decreased Slightly in January
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.
According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.22 million in January from an upwardly revised 1.23 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Inventory was up 3.4% year-over-year (blue) in January compared to January 2025. Months of supply (red) increased to 3.7 months in January from 3.5 months the previous month.
Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in January 2019 months-of-supply was at 3.8 months, so there is about the same supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, as prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory is still down compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)
The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2025 and 2026.
Sales were down 4.4% year-over-year compared to January 2025.
The following content is for paid subscribers only. Thanks to all paid subscribers!