NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.89 million SAAR in June

Median House Prices Increased 4.1% Year-over-Year

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slipped 5.4% in June; Median Sales Price Jumps to Record High of $426,900

Existing-home sales fell in June as the median sales price climbed to the highest price ever recorded for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions posted sales declines. Year-over-year, sales waned in the Northeast, Midwest and South but were unchanged in the West.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 5.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million in June. Year-over-year, sales also dropped 5.4% (down from 4.11 million in June 2023).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1.32 million units, up 3.1% from May and 23.4% from one year ago (1.07 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.7 months in May and 3.1 months in June 2023. The last time unsold inventory posted a four-month supply was May 2020 (4.5 months).
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The sales rate was lower than the consensus forecast, but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate.

Sales in June (3.89 million SAAR) were down 5.4% from the previous month and were 5.4% below the June 2023 sales rate.

Housing Inventory Increased in June

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.32 million in June from 1.28 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 23.4% year-over-year (blue) in June compared to June 2023. Months of supply (red) increased to 4.1 months in June from 3.7 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in June 2019 months-of-supply was at 4.3 months, so there is less supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic - but months-of-supply is getting close to 2019 levels! Even though sales have declined significantly compared to 2019, inventory has fallen even more - pushing down months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales declined 5.4% year-over-year compared to June 2023. This was the thirty-fourth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

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