NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June; Unchanged YoY

Median House Prices Increased 2.0% Year-over-Year

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.7% Decrease in June

Existing-home sales decreased by 2.7% in June, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. ...

Month-over-month sales declined in the Northeast, Midwest and South and rose modestly in the West. Year-over-year, sales fell in the Northeast and West, while rising in the Midwest and South. ...

• 2.7% decrease in existing-home sales -- seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million in June.

• Year-over-year: No change in existing-home sales.

• 0.6% decline in unsold inventory -- 1.53 million units equal to 4.7 months' supply.
emphasis added

The sales rate was below the consensus forecast (but right at housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in June (3.93 million SAAR) were down 2.7% from the previous month and were unchanged compared to the June 2024 sales rate. This was the 5th consecutive month with sales unchanged or down year-over-year.

Housing Inventory Decreased Slightly in June

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.53 million in June from 1.54 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 15.9% year-over-year (blue) in June compared to June 2024. Months of supply (red) increased to 4.7 months in June from 4.6 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in June 2019 months-of-supply was at 4.3 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory is still down compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were unchanged year-over-year compared to June 2024. This was the 5th consecutive month with sales unchanged or down year-over-year. The next three months will also have the easy year-over-year comparisons.

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