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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY

Median House Prices Increased 1.8% Year-over-Year

CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride's avatar
CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride
May 22, 2025
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY
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From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Edged Lower by 0.5% in April

Existing-home sales slowed in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales dipped in the Northeast and West, grew in the Midwest and were unchanged in the South. Year-over-year, sales declined in three regions and remained steady in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slipped 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in April. Year-over-year, sales descended 2.0% (down from 4.08 million in April 2024)..
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of April was 1.45 million units, up 9.0% from March and 20.8% from one year ago (1.2 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.0 months in March and 3.5 months in April 2024.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in April was $414,000, up 1.8% from one year ago ($406,600). The Northeast and Midwest posted price increases, and the South and West registered price decreases.
emphasis added

The sales rate was below the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in April (4.00 million SAAR) were down 0.5% from the previous month and were 2.0% below the April 2024 sales rate. This was the 3rd consecutive month with a year-over-year decline in sales.

Housing Inventory Increased in April

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.45 million in April from 1.33 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 20.8% year-over-year (blue) in April compared to April 2024. Months of supply (red) increased to 4.4 months in April from 4.0 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in April 2019 months-of-supply was at 4.2 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory is still down compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales decreased 2.0% year-over-year compared to April 2024.

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