NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.16 million SAAR in June

Median Prices Declined 0.9% YoY in June

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Retreated 3.3% in June; Monthly Median Sales Price Reached Second-Highest Amount Ever

Existing-home sales slipped in June, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales varied among the four major U.S. regions, with the Northeast experiencing gains, the Midwest holding steady, and the South and West posting decreases. All four regions recorded year-over-year sales declines.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 3.3% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million in June. Year-over-year, sales fell 18.9% (down from 5.13 million in June 2022).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1.08 million units, identical to May but down 13.6% from one year ago (1.25 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.0 months in May and 2.9 months in June 2022.
emphasis added

The sales rate was below the consensus forecast.

Sales in June (4.16 million SAAR) were down 3.3% from the previous month and were 18.9% below the June 2022 sales rate.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023.

Sales declined 18.9% year-over-year compared to June 2022. This was the twenty-second consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. Since sales were declining all year in 2022, the year-over-year declines are getting smaller - even though sales have been mostly flat this year in the low-to-mid 4 million range (SAAR).

The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent five years are shown (2019 through 2023).

Sales NSA in June (434,000) were 17.3% below sales in June 2022 (525,000). On an NSA basis for the month of June, sales were 3.1% above the record low for June during the housing bust (421,000 in June 2008).

This decrease in sales, NSA, was slightly larger than the change in the markets I track each month.

Housing Inventory was Unchanged in June

The fourth graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory was unchanged at 1.08 million in June from 1.08 million in May.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The fifth graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was down 13.6% year-over-year (blue) in June compared to June 2022. Months of supply (red) increased to 3.1 months in June from 3.0 months in May.

Median House Prices Declined 0.9% Year-over-Year

On prices, the NAR reported:

The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $410,200, the second-highest price of all time and down 0.9% from the record-high of $413,800 in June 2022. The monthly median price surpassed $400,000 for the third time, joining June 2022 and May 2022 ($408,600). Prices rose in the Northeast and Midwest but waned in the South and West.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and prices are now down 0.9% YoY. Median house prices increased 3.5% from May to June and are down 0.9% from the peak in June 2022 (NSA). The median price tends to lead the Case-Shiller index, and this is further evidence that Case-Shiller will likely turn positive year-over-year.

Note that closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May. Mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, average around 6.4% in April and May. July sales will be for contracts signed in May and June, mortgage rates averaged 6.7% in June, so closed sales will likely be similar or less in July compared to June.