NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.86 million SAAR in August

Median House Prices Increased 3.1% Year-over-Year

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Dipped 2.5% in August

Existing-home sales fell in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major U.S. regions posted sales declines while the Midwest registered no change. Year-over-year, sales slipped in three regions but remained stable in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – descended 2.5% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million in August. Year-over-year, sales retracted 4.2% (down from 4.03 million in August 2023).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of August was 1.35 million units, up 0.7% from July and 22.7% from one year ago (1.1 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.1 months in July and 3.3 months in August 2023.
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The sales rate was at the consensus forecast.

Sales in August (3.86 million SAAR) were down 2.5% from the previous month and were 4.2% below the August 2023 sales rate.

Housing Inventory Increased in August

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.35 million in August from 1.34 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 22.7% year-over-year (blue) in August compared to August 2023. Months of supply (red) increased to 4.2 months in August from 4.1 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in August 2019 months-of-supply was at 4.0 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory has declined significantly compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales declined 4.2% year-over-year compared to August 2023. This was the thirty-sixth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

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