NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.00 million SAAR in January

Median Prices Down 8.4% from Peak NSA

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Rose 3.1% in January

Existing-home sales grew in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales accelerated in the Midwest, South and West, and remained steady in the Northeast. Year-over-year, sales improved in the West, and decreased in the Northeast, Midwest and South.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – elevated 3.1% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January. Year-over-year, sales slipped 1.7% (down from 4.07 million in January 2023).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of January was 1.01 million units, up 2.0% from December and 3.1% from one year ago (980,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.1 months in December but up from 2.9 months in January 2023.
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The sales rate was above the consensus forecast.

Sales in January (4.00 million SAAR) were up 3.1% from the previous month and were 1.7% below the January 2023 sales rate.

Housing Inventory Increased Slightly in January

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.01 million in January from 0.99 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 3.1% year-over-year (blue) in January compared to January 2023. Months of supply (red) decreased to 3.0 months in January from 3.1 months the previous month.

In January 2019, months-of-supply was at 3.8 months, so there is less supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic. Even though sales have declined significantly, inventory has fallen even more - pushing down months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales declined 1.7% year-over-year compared to January. This was the twenty-ninth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. This was just above the cycle low of 3.85 million SAAR in October 2023.