NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY

Median House Prices Increased 1.3% Year-over-Year

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.8% Increase in May

Existing-home sales rose in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales elevated in the Northeast, Midwest and South, but retreated in the West. Year-over-year, sales progressed in the Northeast and Midwest but contracted in the South and West. ...

• 0.8% increase in total existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million.

• 0.7% decrease year-over-year, sales declined 0.7% (down from 4.06 million in May 2024).

• 1.54 million units: Total housing inventory, up 6.2% from April and 20.3% from May 2024 (1.28 million).

• 4.6-month supply of unsold inventory, up from 4.4 months in April and 3.8 months in May 2024.
emphasis added

The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but right at housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in May (4.03 million SAAR) were up 0.8% from the previous month and were 0.7% below the May 2024 sales rate. This was the 4th consecutive month with a year-over-year decline in sales.

Housing Inventory Increased in May

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.54 million in May from 1.45 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 20.3% year-over-year (blue) in May compared to May 2024. Months of supply (red) increased to 4.6 months in May from 4.4 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in May 2019 months-of-supply was at 4.3 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory is still down compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales decreased 0.7% year-over-year compared to May 2024. This was the 4th consecutive month with a year-over-year decline. The next four months will have the easiest year-over-year comparisons.

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