NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

Median House Prices Increased 4.7% Year-over-Year

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021

Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the West. Year-over-year, sales climbed in all four regions.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – improved 4.8% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in November. Year-over-year, sales bounced 6.1% (up from 3.91 million in November 2023).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.33 million units, down 2.9% from October but up 17.7% from one year ago (1.13 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.2 months in October but up from 3.5 months in November 2023.
emphasis added

The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in November (4.15 million SAAR) were up 4.8% from the previous month and were 6.1% above the November 2023 sales rate. This was the second year-over-year increase since July 2021. Last month was the first.

Housing Inventory Decreased in November

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.33 million in November from 1.37 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 17.7% year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2023. onths of supply (red) decreased to 3.8 months in November from 4.2 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in November 2019 months-of-supply was at 3.7 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory has declined significantly compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales increased 6.1% year-over-year compared to November 2023.

The following content is for paid subscribers only. Thanks to all paid subscribers!