NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Median House Prices Increased 2.1% Year-over-Year

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October

Month-over-month
• 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in October

• 0.7% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.52 million units equal to 4.4 months’ supply

Year-over-year
• 1.7% increase in existing-home sales

• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
emphasis added

The sales rate was slightly above the consensus forecast, however, as usual, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was very close.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in October (4.10 million SAAR) were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 1.7% compared to the October 2024 sales rate. Sales have bounced around a 4 million annual sales rate for the last 3 years.

Housing Inventory Decreased Slightly in October

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.52 million in October from 1.53 million the previous month.

Inventory is declining less than usual in the Fall period. Inventory is only down slightly from the peak in July - usually inventory is down 6% or more seasonally by October.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 10.9% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2024. Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.4 months in October from 4.5 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in October 2019 months-of-supply was at 3.9 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory is still down compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were up 1.7% year-over-year compared to October 2024. The last 2 months of 2025 will have more difficult year-over-year comparisons.

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