NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
Median House Prices Increased 2.1% Year-over-Year
From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in September
Month-over-month
• 1.5% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in September
• 1.3% increase in unsold inventory – 1.55 million units equal to 4.6 months’ supply
Year-over-year
• 4.1% increase in existing-home sales
• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
emphasis added
The sales rate was at the consensus forecast. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.
Sales in September (4.06 million SAAR) were up 1.5% from the previous month and were up 4.1% compared to the September 2024 sales rate. Sales have bounced around a 4 million annual sales rate for almost 3 years.
Housing Inventory Increased Slightly in September
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.
According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.55 million in September from 1.53 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Inventory was up 14.0% year-over-year (blue) in September compared to September 2024. Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 4.6 months in September from 4.6 months the previous month.
Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in August 2019 months-of-supply was at 4.0 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory is still down compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)
The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.
Sales were up 4.1% year-over-year compared to September 2024. This was the easiest year-over-year comparison.
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