NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

Median House Prices Increased 4.0% Year-over-Year

As expected, existing home sales were up year-over-year for the first time since 2021. This was a combination of weak sales in October last year and lower mortgage rates in August and September when contracts were signed (Existing home sales are reported at closing).

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Grew 3.4% in October; First Year-Over-Year Gain Since July 2021

Existing-home sales rose in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales improved in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales elevated in three regions but were unchanged in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – expanded 3.4% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in October. Year-over-year, sales progressed 2.9% (up from 3.85 million in October 2023).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of October was 1.37 million units, up 0.7% from September and 19.1% from one year ago (1.15 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.3 months in September but up from 3.6 months in October 2023.
emphasis added

The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but at housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in October (3.96 million SAAR) were up 3.4% from the previous month and were 2.9% above the October 2023 sales rate.  This was the first year-over-year increase since July 2021.

Housing Inventory Increased in September

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.37 million in October from 1.36 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 19.1% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2023. Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.2 months in October from 4.3 months the previous month.

Looking back to pre-pandemic levels, in October 2019 months-of-supply was at 3.9 months, so there is more supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic! Even though inventory has declined significantly compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply.

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales increased 2.9% year-over-year compared to October 2023. This was the first year-over-year increase since July 2021.

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