New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October
Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
Note: The Census Bureau released sales for September and October this morning. We are still missing new home sales for November due to the government shutdown.
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 737 thousand. September sales were at 738 thousand. The previous three months (June through August) were revised down sharply.
Sales of new single-family houses in October 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 737,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.1 percent below the September 2025 rate of 738,000, and is 18.7 percent above the October 2024 rate of 621,000.
emphasis added
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales were above pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply was unchanged in October at 7.9 months from 7.9 months in September. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October 2025 was 488,000. This is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 488,000, and is 1.7 percent above the October 2024 estimate of 480,000.
This represents a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months.
On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.
The inventory of completed homes for sale (red) - at 122 thousand - is almost quadruple the record low of 31 thousand in February 2022. This matches August for the most since July 2009, and above the normal level of completed homes for sale.
The inventory of homes under construction (blue) at 252 thousand is very high but is about 21% below the cycle peak in July 2022. The inventory of homes not started is at 114 thousand - this is the all-time high.
The fourth graph shows new home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black is the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and light gray is the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent six years are shown (2019 through 2025).
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