Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released New Home Sales data for January today, but the report for February still hasn’t been scheduled.
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 587 thousand. The previous three months (October through December) were revised down, combined.
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 587,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 17.6 percent below the December 2025 rate of 712,000, and is 11.3 percent below the January 2025 rate of 662,000.
emphasis added
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply increased in January to 9.7 months from 8.0 months in December. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January 2026 was 476,000. This is 0.4 percent above the December 2025 estimate of 474,000, and is 4.0 percent below the January 2025 estimate of 496,000.
This represents a supply of 9.7 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is 21.3 percent above the December 2025 estimate of 8.0 months, and is 7.8 percent above the January 2025 estimate of 9.0 months.
On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.
The inventory of completed homes for sale (red) - at 126 thousand - is quadruple the record low of 31 thousand in February 2022. This is the most since July 2009, and above the normal level of completed homes for sale.
The inventory of homes under construction (blue) at 245 thousand is high but is about 23% below the cycle peak in July 2022. The inventory of homes not started is at 105 thousand and is close to the all-time high.
The fourth graph shows new home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black is the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and light gray is the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent seven years are shown (2019 through 2026).
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