New Home Sales Decrease to 622,000 Annual Rate in April
Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
The Census Bureau is now caught up on New Home sales.
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 622 thousand. The previous three months (January through March) were revised down, combined.
This was below the consensus forecast of 670 thousand SAAR.
Sales of new single-family houses in April 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 622,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.2 percent below the March 2026 rate of 663,000, and is 11.3 percent below the April 2025 rate of 701,000.
emphasis added
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply increased in April to 9.4 months from 8.7 months in March. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April 2026 was 489,000. This is 1.7 percent above the March 2026 estimate of 481,000, and is 2.2 percent below the April 2025 estimate of 500,000.
This represents a supply of 9.4 months at the current sales rate. The months' supply is 8.0 percent above the March 2026 estimate of 8.7 months, and is 9.3 percent above the April 2025 estimate of 8.6 months.
On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.
The inventory of completed homes for sale (red) - at 122 thousand - is almost quadruple the record low of 31 thousand in February 2022. This is down from the recent peak of 128 in January 2026, but well above the normal level of completed homes for sale.
The inventory of homes under construction (blue) at 258 thousand is high but is 20% below the cycle peak. The inventory of homes “not started” is at 111 thousand and is at an all-time high.
The fourth graph shows new home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black is the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and light gray is the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent seven years are shown (2019 through 2026).
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