The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 684 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined.
This was well above the consensus forecast of 615 thousand SAAR.
Sales of new single-family houses in August 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 684,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.4 percent above the July 2026 rate of 643,000, and is 2.0 percent below the August 2025 rate of 698,000. emphasis added
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply decreased in August to 8.5 months from 9.0 months in July. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August 2026 was 483,000. This is virtually unchanged from the July 2026 estimate of 483,000, and is 2.0 percent (±4.0 percent)* below the August 2025 estimate of 493,000.
This represents a supply of 8.5 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is 5.6 percent below the July 2026 estimate of 9.0 months, and is virtually unchanged from the August 2025 estimate of 8.5 months.
On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.
The inventory of completed homes for sale (red) - at 113 thousand - is more than triple the record low of 31 thousand in February 2022. This is below the recent peak of 128 in January 2026, but above the normal level of completed homes for sale.
The inventory of homes under construction (blue) at 256 thousand is high but is 20% below the cycle peak. The inventory of homes “not started” is at 114 thousand and is at an all-time high.
The fourth graph shows new home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black is the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and light gray is the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The most recent seven years are shown (2019 through 2026).
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