NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen"
Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies suggests more weakness for Apartments
From the NMHC: Apartment Market Continues to Loosen Amidst Worsening Financing Conditions
Apartment market conditions continued to weaken in the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC’s) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for April 2024. With the exception of Sales Volume (52), which turned positive this quarter, the Market Tightness (41), Equity Financing (49), and Debt Financing (44) indexes all came in below the breakeven level (50).
“Inflation has come in hotter than expected over the past few months – as the shelter component of CPI continues to lag moderating asking rents – which is expected to push back Fed rate cuts,” noted NMHC Senior Director of Research Chris Bruen. “This has translated to a 40-basis-point (bps) increase in the 10-Year Treasury yield and a decrease in the availability of debt financing over the past three months.”
“On the brighter side, however, this month’s survey results indicate that apartment sales volume has finally increased after seven consecutive quarters of declines. Meanwhile, the U.S. apartment market continues to absorb historic levels of new supply, resulting in rising vacancy rates and decreasing rent growth.”
• The Market Tightness Index came in at 41 this quarter – below the breakeven level (50) – indicating looser market conditions for the seventh consecutive quarter. That said, a plurality of respondents (42%) thought market conditions were unchanged compared to three months ago, while 37% thought markets have become looser. Twenty percent of respondents reported tighter markets than three months ago, up from 5% in January.
• The Sales Volume Index reading of 52 marked the first quarter of increasing deal flow in eight quarters. A majority of respondents (61%) reported sales volume to be unchanged from three months ago. While just 6% of respondents reported higher sales volume in January, 21% reported higher sales volume this quarter. Conversely, 17% thought volume was lower than three months ago.
• The Equity Financing Index came in at 49 – just barely under the breakeven level (50) – marking the ninth consecutive quarter in which equity financing became less available. Up from half of respondents in January, 59% of respondents this round reported availability of equity financing to be unchanged from three months ago. Seventeen percent believed equity financing to be more available, while 18% thought it less available.
• The Debt Financing Index reading of 44 indicated less available debt financing compared to three months ago, a reversal from a reading of 66 last quarter. The majority of respondents (59%) felt debt financing conditions were unchanged, while 24% reported now was a worse time to borrow than three months ago. Thirteen percent of respondents thought conditions were better, down from 45% in January.
Emphasis added
This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index.
The quarterly index increased to 41 in April from 23 in January. Any reading below 50 indicates looser conditions from the previous quarter.
This index has been an excellent leading indicator for rents and vacancy rates, and this suggests higher vacancy rates and a further weakness in asking rents. This is the seventh consecutive quarter with looser conditions than the previous quarter.
The NMHC tightness survey, combined with the Architectural Billings Index that has shown a decline in multi-family design billing for nineteen consecutive months, suggests multifamily starts will remain under pressure in 2024.