NMHC on Apartments: Market Tightness "mostly unchanged" in April Survey
Multifamily executives have lowered their expectations for total 2026 multifamily starts
From the NMHC: NMHC Survey Shows Apartment Market Conditions Holding Steady
Apartment market conditions were largely unchanged over the past three months according to results from the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC’s) April Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions, as all four indexes came in close to the breakeven level of 50.
The Market Tightness Index (49) and Equity Financing Index (49) came in just below the breakeven level of 50, indicating a slightly higher share of respondents who thought rent growth was lower (or vacancies higher) and equity financing was less available than in January. The Sales Volume Index (52) and Debt Financing Index (51), meanwhile, pointed to increased deal flow and better borrowing conditions, albeit with considerable disagreement among respondents.
“The outbreak of war in the Middle East in late February has led to higher oil prices, inflation, interest rates and a general sense of economic uncertainty,” noted NMHC Senior Director of Research and Chief Economist, Chris Bruen. “This has caused multifamily executives to lower their expectations for total 2026 multifamily sales volume and starts.”
“Survey respondents continue to report market conditions that are largely holding steady. All four of NMHC’s Quarterly Survey indexes are hovering around the breakeven level of 50, pointing to an environment without strong momentum in either direction.”
The Market Tightness Index came in at 49 this month—just below the breakeven level of 50—indicating looser market conditions compared to three months ago. Twenty-four percent of respondents thought market conditions were looser than three months ago (compared to 43% in January), while 23% thought conditions were tighter (up from 7% in January). More than half (52%) of respondents thought market conditions were unchanged from three months ago.
The Sales Volume Index came in at 52, above the breakeven level (50) and up from 47 in January, indicating an increase in deal flow. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported sales volume to be higher than three months ago while 23% thought sales volume had become lower. Forty-four percent of respondents reported sales volume to be roughly unchanged compared to three months ago.
The Equity Financing Index dropped back to 49, after two consecutive quarters of being above the breakeven level, reflecting less availability of equity financing. Although 39% of respondents reported mostly unchanged availability of equity financing compared to three months ago, 19% said equity had become more available while 22% reported a decrease in availability (19% did not respond to this question).
The Debt Financing Index declined to 51 from 75 last quarter. While this still signals improving conditions for debt financing, respondents were varied in their opinions. Twenty-eight percent of respondents reported more favorable conditions for borrowing compared to three months ago, 27% reported less favorable conditions (up from 3% in January), while a third (33%) thought conditions were unchanged.
We asked respondents this round how their expectations have changed since the start of the year for total 2026 sales volume and multifamily starts. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they now expect 2026 sales volume to be lower than they did at the start of the year, 23% now believe annual sales volume will be higher, while 29% reported no change in their expectations for 2026 deal flow (the remaining 10% responded “don’t know/not applicable”).
Expectations for 2026 multifamily starts appear to have soured to an even greater degree. One third (33%) of respondents said they expect 2026 starts to be lower than they did at the start of the year compared to just 11% who have revised their expectations upward. Still, more than half (52%) of respondents reported no change in their expectations for 2026 starts (4% responded “don’t know/not applicable”).Emphasis added
This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index.
The quarterly index increased to 49 in April from 32 in January. Any reading below 50 indicates looser conditions from the previous quarter.
This index has been an excellent leading indicator for rents and vacancy rates, and this suggests vacancy rates and asking rents are under some pressure.
This NMHC quarterly survey and the monthly Architectural Billings Index should be watched for any signs of a future pickup in multi-family starts. Both are currently slightly negative.