November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year
Cape Coral has a high level of Negative Equity
Here is the ICE November Mortgage Monitor report (pdf).
Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Number of Highly Qualified Refinance Candidates Reaches 3.5-Year High Amid Easing Mortgage Rates
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released its November 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report. The data shows that falling mortgage rates have significantly expanded the pool of homeowners who could reduce their monthly payments by refinancing, while also reducing the cost to finance purchase and home equity mortgage loans.
The recent easing in mortgage rates has begun to open the refinance window for many borrowers, particularly those who originated loans in the past two years,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “At the same time, homeowners still have near-record amounts of tappable equity, and the cost to access that equity continues to improve. Together, these trends are creating meaningful opportunities for borrowers to leverage rate-and-term refinances and second-lien home equity products.”
Key findings from the November Mortgage Monitor include:
Highly qualified refinance candidate population hits multi-year high
As the ICE U.S. Conforming 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lock Index dipped to 6.17% in late October — the lowest level in a year — the number of highly qualified refinance candidates (those with a 720+ credit score, 20% equity, and potential savings of at least 75 basis points) rose to 1.7 million, the largest such population since early 2022.
When broader borrower profiles are included, approximately 4.1 million mortgage holders are currently “in the money” for a refinance, meaning they could save at least 75 bps by refinancing at prevailing mortgage rates. Should rates ease to 6.125% the cohort “in the money” to refinance would expand to nearly 5 million.
Prepayment speeds rise sharply among recently originated loans
ICE McDash Flash daily performance data shows that prepayment speeds rose sharply in September and October as refinances spurred by the recent dip in mortgage rates began to pull through to close. Most of this activity comes from loans originated between 2023 and 2025. As of mid-October, prepayment speeds for both 2023 and 2024 vintage GNMA- and GSE-securitized loans have more than doubled compared to August levels.
Strong equity positions support home equity lending
Mortgage holders entered Q4 with $17.3 trillion in home equity, of which $11.2 trillion is tappable, meaning it can be accessed via home equity loan while still maintaining a 20% equity stake in the property. The average mortgage holder has $204,000 available to borrow.
While total equity growth has flattened alongside slower home price appreciation in recent months, the monthly cost to withdraw $50,000 in equity has fallen by more than $100 from recent highs as HELOC interest rate offerings have fallen from nearly 10% in early 2024 to the low 7% range in Q3 2025.
Home price growth firmed in October alongside improved affordability
ICE Home Price Index (HPI) data shows that annual home price growth ticked up to +0.9% in October as affordability hit its best level in 2.5 years, breaking a nine-month streak of slowing appreciation. Single family homes were up +1.2% annually in October while condo prices were down 1.8% from the same time last year. Home price growth remains strongest in the Northeast and Midwest, while a recent reversal of inventory growth in parts of the South and West have begun to slow the rate of home price cooling. …
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Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in September
Here is a graph of the national delinquency rate from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased in September and remain below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash
The national delinquency rate fell by 2 basis points (bps) in September to 3.42%, down 6 bps from the same time last year and 58 bps below its September 2019 pre-pandemic level
Both early-stage (30-day) and late-stage (90+ day) delinquencies improved month over month following the August Sunday month end, as the vast majority of borrowers remain current on their mortgage payments
Delinquency inflows and rolls to 60-days late both declined, with rolls to 90-days late flat month over month, with cures to current improving across all stages of delinquency
The non-current rate (delinquencies plus active foreclosures) declined year over year among GSE (-3 bps), VA (-4 bps) and portfolio-held loans (-17 bps), with FHA loans being the notable exception, rising by 44 bps from last year
FHA loans now account for 47% of all delinquencies and 52% of all serious delinquencies (90+ days past due but not in foreclosure)
Only 25% of FHA loans that are 90 or more days late are in foreclosure – the lowest share of any product – but with FHA guidelines changing this fall, that share may be poised to grow
House Prices Up 0.9% Year-over-year
Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 0.9% year-over-year in October.
Improved rates and tighter inventory boosted home prices in October, with annual growth rising to +0.9% and seasonally adjusted prices increasing +0.15% ‒ the largest monthly gain since March
That equates to a seasonally adjusted annualized growth rate of +1.8%, modest by historical standards but signaling potential for continued firming in the months ahead
Single-family home prices rose +1.2% annually in October, while condo prices declined by -1.8% year over year
Only 25% of major markets experienced month-over-month price drops in October, the smallest share since February
and a significant improvement from earlier this year
Negative Equity Rates Have Increased
Negative equity rates, after years at record lows, have risen slightly toward more typical levels
As of Q4, 875K mortgage holders (1.6%) owe more on their homes than they are worth, the highest rate in three years but comparable to pre-COVID levels and long-term averages outside the Great Financial Crisis
The share of borrowers with limited equity (<10%) has also increased, reaching 6.9% in September ‒ the highest since mid-2020 but still below long-term averages
While overall negative equity rates remain low, certain markets are showing signs of concern, particularly in the Gulf Coast of Florida and Austin, Texas
In Cape Coral, Fla., where home prices have dropped 15% from their peak, 11% of mortgages are underwater, including over one-third of those originated in 2023 and 2024
In Austin, with prices down 21% from their highs, nearly 7% of mortgages are underwater, including about 25% of loans from 2022 and over 15% from 2023 and 2024
Borrowers with low down payment FHA/VA loans in these areas face even higher negative equity rates, exceeding 60% in some cases
In contrast, markets like Bridgeport, Hartford, New Haven (Conn.), San Jose, Los Angeles, Boston, and New York City, which have resilient home prices and larger down payments, have virtually no negative equity
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There is much more in the mortgage monitor.