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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025
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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025

CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride's avatar
CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride
May 09, 2025
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CalculatedRisk Newsletter
CalculatedRisk Newsletter
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025
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This 2-part overview for mid-May provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Right now, the key story for existing homes is that inventory is increasing sharply, and sales are essentially flat compared to last year. That means prices will be under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales).

Yesterday, Realtor.com reported that there were “more than 1 million homes for sale last week, crossing this threshold for the first time since December 2019”.

New Listings for Existing Homes Up Year-over-year in April

Realtor.com reports in April 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 9.2% year-over-year in April. And active listings were up 30.6% year-over-year.

Homebuyers found more options in April, as the number of actively listed homes rose 30.6% compared with the same time last year. This marks the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year inventory gains and builds on March’s 28.5% increase. For the first time, the number of homes for sale in April surpassed April 2020 levels—a key pandemic benchmark. Despite this progress, active inventory remains 16.3% below typical 2017–19 levels, signaling that the market still has ground to cover. That said, April’s gains suggest the market is closing that gap more quickly than before.

Note the seasonality for active listings. The next few months will be the key for inventory, and it now appears inventory will be back to 2019 levels by the end of 2025.

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