Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026
Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key stories this year for the existing home market are that months-of-supply was above pre-pandemic levels. And sales to date in 2026 are mostly unchanged from 2025 levels (lowest since 1995)!
That means prices are under pressure, especially in areas with high levels of inventory, although we will NOT see cascading price declines like during the housing bust, since there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales. This is because most homeowners have substantial equity and low mortgage rates.
In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
Lower mortgage rates led to a pickup in purchase mortgage applications in 2025 and early 2026, but that didn’t lead to an increase in sales. More recently, mortgage rates have increased due to the war and purchase applications are down year-over-year (YoY).
House Prices
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 0.9% YoY in January and will likely be about the same in the February report (based on other data).
The Composite 10 NSA was up 1.7% YoY. The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.2% YoY. The National index NSA was up 0.9% YoY.
The National index increased 0.23% month-over-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted, This is the 6th consecutive month with a MoM increase seasonally adjusted that followed 5 consecutive months with a MoM decline.
The January Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in November, December and January. November closing prices include some contracts signed in September. So, not only is the year-over-year change trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.
Let’s review some more timely house price data …
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