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CalculatedRisk Newsletter

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026

CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride's avatar
CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride
Sep 21, 2026
∙ Paid

On Friday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026 I reviewed home inventory and sales.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.

House Prices

Here is an interesting graph from Realtor.com on median list house prices. According to Realtor.com, list prices peaked in 2022 (when interest rates moved sharply higher) and have moved mostly sideways for four years.

These are median prices and can be distorted by the mix, but median list prices have been down year-over-year for ten consecutive months. Also, June median prices are typically the peak for the year - so this measure of prices will likely decline through December.

The Case-Shiller National Index increased 1.5% YoY in June and will likely be up a little more in the July report (based on other data).

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.9% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 1.5% year-over-year.

The National index increased 0.13% month-over-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted. This followed three consecutive months with a MoM decline.

Let’s review some more timely house price data …

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