Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply, and sales are down slightly year-to-date compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.

As I noted in September, the house price trend suggests house prices will be down year-over-year by the end of 2025. However, there are two powerful forces pushing in opposite directions - mortgage rates have declined, and unemployment is increasing. Both could impact sales and house prices.

House Prices

The Case-Shiller National Index increased 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) in August and will likely be about the same year-over-year in the September report compared to August (based on other data).

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.6% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 1.5% year-over-year.

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.21% (a +2.5% annual rate). This followed five consecutive MoM decreases in the seasonally adjusted index.

In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 3.9%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.7%, in May up 2.3%, in June up 1.9% in July 1.7% and in August 1.5%.

And the August Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in June, July and August. June closing prices include some contracts signed in April.

So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.

Let’s review some more timely house price data …

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