Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

REO: lender Real Estate Owned

We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.

Last Friday, CoreLogic reported on homeowner equity: CoreLogic: US Homeowners See Equity Increase to Nearly All-Time High in Q1

The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) saw home equity increase by 9.6% year over year, representing a collective gain of $1.5 trillion and an average increase of $28,000 per borrower since the first quarter of 2023. This brought total net homeowner equity to more than $17 trillion at the end of Q1 2024. …

From the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, the total number of homes in negative equity decreased by 16.1%, to 1.2 million homes or 2.1% of all mortgaged properties.

And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2023 (Q1 2024 data will be released in three weeks).

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.2% of loans are under 3%, 58.1% are under 4%, and 77.0% are under 5%.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.

Some simple definitions (for housing):

Forbearance is the act of refraining from enforcing mortgage debt.

Delinquency is the failure to make mortgage payments on a timely basis.

Foreclosure is when the mortgage lender takes possession of the property after the mortgagor failed to make their payments. “In foreclosure” is the process of foreclosure.

REO (Real Estate Owned) is the amount of real estate owned by lenders.

Here is some data on REOs through Q1 2024 …