Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease

The NY Fed released the Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning. Here are a few charts from the report.

Note: The Liberty Street Economics blog today focused on “borrower trends in the mortgage market across balances, delinquency rates, credit scores, and geography”.

The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

Solid underwriting is a key reason I’ve argued Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons

From the NY Fed:

The volume of mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase originations, increased slightly with $458 billion newly originated in 2025Q2. … Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $18 billion, continuing the growth in HELOC limits that began in 2022. …

Credit quality of newly originated loans was mixed. … There was an improvement in the credit quality of mortgages, as the median score of newly originated mortgage loans increased by 5 points and the tenth percentile score increased by 13 points.

Here is another way to look at the credit scores by origination over time. There was a significant decline in credit scores during the bubble.

Transition Rates for Current Mortgages

A possible concern was the recent increase in transition rates from current to 30-60 days late. This had been steadily increasing since mortgage rates increased but decreased in Q2 - and is below pre-pandemic levels.

And here is the transition to serious delinquencies. Most short-term delinquencies transition back to current. The transition to seriously delinquent (90+ days) declined in Q2.

Foreclosures Decrease

Foreclosures are still well below pre-pandemic levels. The increase over the last two quarters was likely due to the end of the VA foreclosure moratorium.

And as a “bubble” reminder, here is graph of percent new foreclosures by state (the “sand states” Nevada, California, Floride and Arizona saw that largest number of foreclosures during the housing bust). Now no state really stands out.

Although no state stands out in the percent of foreclosures, some states - especially Florida and Texas - are seeing a pickup in the transition to seriously delinquent (and will probably see a pickup in foreclosures.

There is much more in the report.