Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.460 million Annual Rate in December

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,460,000. This is 4.3 percent below the revised November estimate of 1,525,000, but is 7.6 percent above the December 2022 rate of 1,357,000. Single‐family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,027,000; this is 8.6 percent below the revised November figure of 1,124,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 417,000.

An estimated 1,413,100 housing units were started in 2023. This is 9.0 percent below the 2022 figure of 1,552,600.

Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,495,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised November rate of 1,467,000 and is 6.1 percent above the December 2022 rate of 1,409,000. Single‐family authorizations in December were at a rate of 994,000; this is 1.7 percent above the revised November figure of 977,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 449,000 in December.

An estimated 1,469,800 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2023. This is 11.7 percent below the 2022 figure of 1,665,100.
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The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in December compared to November. Multi-family starts were down 7.9% year-over-year in December. Single-family starts (red) decreased in December and were up 15.8% year-over-year.

Note that the weakness in 2022 and early 2023 had been in single family starts (red), however the weakness has moved to multi-family now while single family has bounced back from the bottom.

The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and now recovery in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in December were above expectations, however, starts in October and November were revised down, combined.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red).

Total starts were up 7.6% in December compared to December 2022.  And starts in 2023 were down 9.0% compared to 2022.

Starts were down year-over-year for 16 of the last 20 months, although starts were up year-over-year in 4 of the last 8 months. The year-over-year comparisons will be easier in 2024.

Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).