Watch Months-of-Supply!

Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months - and that is unlikely any time soon - however, as expected, months-of-supply is above 2019 levels.

Months-of-supply was at 4.3 months…