4th Look at Local Markets in April

Expect the NAR to Report Sales of around 4.33 million for April

Yesterday, housing economist Tom Lawler noted:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.33 million in April, down 2.5% from March’s preliminary pace and down 22.3% from last April’s seasonally adjusted pace.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release April existing home sales on Thursday, May 18, 2023, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 4.30 million SAAR.

This is the fourth look at local markets in April. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout the month as data is released.

Closed sales in April were mostly for contracts signed in February and March. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were over 6% for all of February and March - compared to the 4% range the previous year - closed sales were down significantly year-over-year in April.

It is likely sales were down more year-over-year in April than in March, however, the impact was probably not as severe as for closed sales in December and January (rates were the highest in October and November 2022 when contracts were signed for closing in December and January).

Active Inventory in April

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in April.

Inventory in these markets were up 69% YoY in March and are now up 42.5% YoY. It is possible that inventory will be down YoY in a few months!

Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta and Denver (included in state totals)

   

New Listings in April

And here is a table for new listings in April (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were down 22.4% YoY. Potential sellers that are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates has pushed down new listings.

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 15.8% YoY. The decline in new listing in April - for these areas - was more than the YoY decline in March.

Closed Sales in April

And a table of April sales.

In April, sales in these markets were down 24.7%. In March, these same markets were down 19.4% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a larger YoY decline NSA in April than in March for these markets, however there was one less selling day in April this year. This data suggests the April existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, and the 20th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

Several more local markets to come next week!