Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in May.
There were several key stories for May:
Sales NSA are down year-over-year (YoY) through May, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! The YoY comparisons will be easier the next several months, so sales in 2025 might be close to the level in 2024.
Sales SA were down YoY for the 4th consecutive month and 41 of the last 45 months.
Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (tying one month near the start of the pandemic).
The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines.
Sales at 4.03 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were above the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was right on (usually very close).
Sales averaged close to 5.44 million SAAR for the month of May in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
Closed Sales in May
In May, sales in these markets were down 3.8% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were also down 3.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in May were down 4.0% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.
Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was higher than for the NSA data. According to the NAR, seasonally adjusted sales were only down 0.7% YoY in May.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to table in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
For next month (June 2025 sales): There were more working days in June 2025 (20) as in June 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than for the NSA data.
June sales will be mostly for contracts signed in April and May, and mortgage rates averaged 6.73% in April and 6.82% in May (slightly higher than for closed sales in May).
My early expectation is that we will see existing home sales (SA) mostly unchanged to up a little year-over-year in June compared to June 2024 (3.93 million SAAR). Mortgage rates were up slightly, but the comparison will be easier.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025. In May, sales were down year-over-year for the 4th consecutive month. Year-to-date, sales are down 2.8% NSA. The next four months will have the easiest year-over-year comparisons.
Total sales last year (2024) were the lowest since 1995 (lower than any year during the housing bust), so it says something that sales are tracking even lower in 2025!
Months of Supply
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase further in late Summer.
New Listings in May
For these areas, new listings were up 6.1% year-over-year.
Last month, new listings in these markets were up 9.6% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but down 18.5% compared to May 2019 activity for the cities that I have 2019 data.
Active Inventory in May
Inventory was up 24.7% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 26.1% YoY. Inventory is picking up more than usual seasonally.
Also note the significant regional differences.
More local data coming in July for activity in June!