Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in August.
The big story for August was that existing home sales decreased to 3.86 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) - just above the cycle low of 3.85 million SAAR in October 2023 - and the 36th consecutive month with a year-over-year decline.
Regionally, inventory continues to increase sharply in Florida and Texas.
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to August 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).
Closed sales in August were mostly for contracts signed in June and July when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.92% and 6.85%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
California Home Sales up Slightly Year-over-year
California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report the year-over-year change. Here is the press release from the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales pull back in August as buyers adopt “wait and see” strategy, C.A.R. reports
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 262,050 in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2024 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
August’s sales pace fell 6.3 percent from the 279,810 homes sold in July and were up 2.8 percent from a year ago, when a revised 254,820 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The sales pace has remained below the 300,000-threshold for 23 consecutive months, while year-to-date home sales edged up 0.5 percent from the first eight months of 2023.
August’s statewide median price was essentially flat, inching up 0.2 percent from $886,560 in July to $888,740 in August. California’s median home price was 3.4 percent higher than the revised $859,670 recorded in August 2023. The year-over-year gain was the 14th straight month of annual price increases, albeit the smallest since September 2023. Home prices could soften further in the coming months but should continue to register year-over-year growth for the rest of the year.
The statewide unsold inventory index (UII), which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, increased both month-over-month and year-over-year. The index was 3.2 months in August, up from 2.9 months in July and up from 2.4 months in August 2023. Active listings at the state level rose more than 39 percent from the year-ago level. It was the seventh straight month of annual gains in for-sale properties.
emphasis added
Active Inventory in August
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets.
Inventory is up 26.8% year-over-year. A key will be inventory changes in the Fall and Winter.
Inventory is down in most of these areas compared to 2019, however we are seeing some significant regional differences.
Notes for all tables:
New additions to tables in BOLD.
Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver or Minneapolis (included in state totals)
Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!
New Listings in August
And here is a table for new listings in August (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 4.2% year-over-year.
New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in all of these areas except Jacksonville and Grand Rapids are down compared to August 2019 activity.
Closed Sales in August
And a table of August sales.
In August, sales in these markets were down 4.5% YoY. The NAR reported sales were down 5.7% year-over-year NSA in August.
Sales in all of these markets are down compared to August 2019.
This was a year-over-year decrease NSA for these markets. However, there was one fewer working day in August 2024 compared to August 2023 (22 vs 23), so seasonally adjusted sales were down less than NSA sales.
September sales will be mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates decreased to an average of 6.50% in August, down from 6.85% in July. My early expectation is we will see existing home sales up year-over-year in September - for the first time in over 3 years!
Note for next month (September sales): There were the same number of working days in September 2024 (20) as in September 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. This was the thirty-sixth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. Sometime this year sales will likely be up year-over-year, just because sales were so low in the 2nd half of 2023.
Sales in September 2023 were reported at 3.98 million SAAR.
More local data coming in October for activity in September!