Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year
4 of the 5 cities with largest price declines are in Florida!
Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.15% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in April. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.6% in April, down from up 2.9% YoY in March. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023.
The second graph shows the month-over-month (MoM) change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted.
The seasonally adjusted FMHPI decreased -0.15% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in April. This was the 3rd consecutive MoM decrease in the index. Over the last 3 months, this index has decreased at a 1.8% annual rate and increased at a 1.6% annualized rate over the last 6 months.
House prices are under pressure.
26 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
As of April, 26 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-5.3), Colorado (-2.4%), Oregon (-2.0%), Montana (-1.7%) and Florida (-1.7%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.
Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 1.8% YoY in April) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 3.4% YoY in March. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will be up less year-over-year in the April report compared to March.
As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow.