Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year
17 of the 30 cities with largest price declines are in Florida and Texas
Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.23% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in May. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.2% in May, down from up 2.6% YoY in April. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023.
The second graph shows the month-over-month (MoM) change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted.
The seasonally adjusted FMHPI decreased -0.23% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in May. This was the 4th consecutive MoM decrease in the SA index. Over the last 3 months, this index has decreased at a 2.7% annual rate and is unchanged over the last 6 months.
House prices are under pressure!
31 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
As of May, 31 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-4.7), Colorado (-3.1%), Idaho (-3.0%), Texas (-2.7%), and Florida (-2.2%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 257 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.
Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. Cities in Florida (10) and Texas (7) dominate this list.
Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 1.3% YoY in May) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 2.7% YoY in April. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will be up less year-over-year in the May report compared to April.
As inventory builds in 2025, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will continue to slow and might turn negative towards the end of 2025.