Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

“If you do not know where you come from, then you don't know where you are, and if you don't know where you are, then you don't know where you're going. And if you don't know where you're going, you're probably going wrong.” Terry Pratchett

These “Current State” summaries show us where we came from, where we are, and hopefully give us clues as to where we are going!

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 I reviewed home inventory and sales.

House Prices

The Case-Shiller National Index increased 4.8% year-over-year in October and will likely be even more positive YoY in November (based on other data).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.65%. This was the ninth consecutive MoM increase following seven straight MoM decreases.

In Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024? I discussed my outlook for house prices in 2024.

Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up further YoY in the November Case-Shiller index. The NAR reported median prices were up 4.0% YoY in November, up from 3.4% YoY in October. ICE / Black Knight reported prices were up 5.1% YoY in November, up from 4.5% YoY in October to new all-time highs, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 6.3% YoY in November, up from 5.6% YoY in October - and also to new all-time highs.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.